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Beta · Chancing engine v2 now reads 2025–26 Common Data Sets

AdmitEdge · College Prep Suite

See your chances,and the math.

AdmitEdge calculates your admission chances from each school's Common Data Set, shows every step of the math, and what moves your number.

Plan-aware · CDS-sourced · No black box

Live output · sample profile: 3.9 UW · 4.4 W · 1520 SAT · 5 APs · Strong ECs · applying RD

Example chance card from the product: Wellesley College, classified Target with an estimated 20 percent admission chance (range 15 to 25 percent). Admit rate 14.8%, average GPA 3.88, SAT 1460–1540, ACT 33–35. RD 12.8% · ED 29.4% · CDS C21 2025–26.

The calculation

Every chance, calculated step by step.

Boston College, applying Early Decision. The engine starts from the school's published ED rate, adjusts for your profile, then keeps the estimate grounded in the data — never more precise than the numbers support.

Boston College · ED · 33.4% base

  1. Base rateCDS

    ED admit rate (school-published), 33.4% · log-odds -0.690

    0.0%

  2. Stat (above-median)+0.202Research

    β = +0.202 · ×1.22 on the odds

    0.0%

  3. Rigor (high)+0.200Research

    β = +0.200 · ×1.22 on the odds

    0.0%

  4. Ec (strong) × scale 0.85+0.289Estimated

    β = +0.289 · ×1.34 on the odds

    0.0%

  5. Plan (ED)−0.050Research

    β = −0.050 · ×0.95 on the odds

    0.0%

  6. Bayesian shrinkage−3.5 ptsResearch

    w = 0.78 · pulls confident estimates back toward the 33.4% base

    0.0%

  7. Final estimate

    Likely0%

Computed live by the chance engine. Base rate and shrinkage anchor are Boston College's real CDS C21 figures — every factor in the product carries its source.

Live output · sample profile: 3.9 UW · 4.4 W · 1520 SAT · 5 APs · Strong ECs · applying ED

The tools

One profile powers every tool.

Chancing, essays, activities, GPA, list building, comparison, and strategy share one profile — change a grade and every estimate updates.

Swipe to see every tool →

  • 131

    schools in the catalog

    Each merged with its own CDS

  • 7

    decision plans modeled

    ED through Rolling base rates

  • 13

    essay rubric axes

    7 Common App + 6 V-SPICE

  • C21

    the section we read

    First-year admit rates by plan

The data

Every rate comes from each school's Common Data Set.

Section C21 — first-year admit rates by decision plan, published by the schools themselves. No scraped numbers, no estimates.

  • Boston College

    16.2%

    CDS C21 · 2024–25

  • Wellesley College

    14.8%

    CDS C21 · 2025–26

  • Tulane University

    14.5%

    CDS C21 · 2025–26

  • Rice University

    8%

    CDS C21 · 2024–25

Your plan changes the math

Wellesley College · CDS C21 2025–26

Early Decision

0.0%

Regular Decision

0.0%

Applying ED to Wellesley College more than doubles the base rate the chance model starts from — 29.4% vs 12.8% Regular Decision. AdmitEdge picks the right base for every plan you compare.

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